A range of indices paints a somewhat positive picture of the year ahead.

Unemployment rate & Economy
The big news is unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% and the IMF forecasts the economy to register a growth rate of  2.5% in 2010, and 3% in 2011.

Job Vacancies
The three main index monitoring job vacancies are all showing positive signs even though recovery in online ads are not substantial. Olivier Job Index grew by 0.48% in December, up almost 10% from July.  The DEEWR’s Skilled Vacancy Index (print job ads) grew by 1.1% in January , but the Internet Vacancy Index (online job ads) dropped by 12.1%. The ANZ job series also reported growth.

Employer Confidence
Employer confidence increased for the third consecutive quarter according to the latest Hudson Report.  Nationally, a net 29.1% of employers are planning to increase headcount in the next quarter.  Sectors like the IT industry are particularly positive, with a net 40.8% planning to increase headcount of permanent staff.

The D&B’s National Expectation Survey also found that firms are heading into 2010 with a very positive outlook. However, the employment outlook index has fallen back to 0, which is still up by 26 points on the June quarter when the index registered its lowest point since the survey started in 1998. Seven percent of SME employers are planning to increase headcount offset by 7% who are planning to decrease.

The Sensis Business Index, also shows a bounce in confidence level of the small business sector, currently registering its highest level since August 2007. In a positive development, SMEs are also positive about the next 12 months, with 20% indicating an increase in headcount.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has also increased. The latest Westpac- Melbourne Institute noted ‘households assessed that their job security has improved substantially.

Whichever way you looked at 2010 promises to be a lot more different than 2009.

This year, like  2009, our industry will be greatly affected by something none of us have any real control over – the economy.  But 2010 looks promising. All the major indices are showing signs of progress.

According to the ANZ’s job series jobs advertised on print grew by 11.6% during December. Online job ads also grew by 5.6%.  Similarly, the DEEWR vacancy Index also showed signs of consistent recovery. The chart below traced the uptick in jobs advertised on print media across the nation. Print advertising has increased steadily since June 09. Curiously, growth in online job ads aren’t as impressive. Still, it is good to welcome the new year with strong signs of recovery.

Other indices to keep track includes:

• National unemployment rate currently stands at 5.7% (The ABS will release the latest data today).
• SEEK Index
• Olivier Job Index

Once the other indices are released in the coming days, we will have a clearer picture of the economy. Obviously, growth will vary across different industries, and regional differences will be acute (ACT boast a 3.7% unemployment rate).  Overall, job advertisement numbers paint a positive picture of the future.  Besides, GDP is estimated to grow at 3.7%.

A brand new year arrives. Hundreds of ‘to do’ items screams for attention. What is one supposed to do first?

I am reminded of a quote by Hank Paulson, former CEO, Goldman Sachs:

“I call 60 CEOs in the first week of the year to wish them happy New Year. …” (Source: Fortune, “Secrets of Greatness,” 0320.05 via Tom Peters)

It’s good to remind ourselves that we are in the people business.  Human touch matters even in the midst of unprecedented advances in technology and upheaval in our industry.  A simple goodwill call, without expecting anything in return, is a good way to start the new year.

Happy new year.

Some good news from the manufacturing front. According to the latest Australian PMI (Performance of Manufacturing Index) employment in the manufacturing sector rose for the first time in 23 months. The index grew from 44.6 points in October to 53.7 in November. Average wages in the sector also grew, with the wage index increasing by 3.3 points.

It’s heartening news for the overall economy when one of the most vulnerable sectors shows signs of recovery. 

The whole PMI series is available here.

The DEEWR Skilled Vacancy Index (SVI), which monitored jobs advertised on newspapers, increased by 2.4% in November 2009. This is the seventh consecutive month the index has moved up. 

Vacancies in the Building and Engineering Professionals sector rose by 7.8%, followed by Metal Trades (up by 6.2%), Construction Trades (up by 4.4%), and Printing Trades (up by 3.8%).

What’s encouraging, considering we are heading into the holiday season, is the fact Internet job vacancies are also up.